2022-04-11 Speech notes for the Toronto Board of Health
The Truckers would do a better job running TPH
I address these comments particularly to my councillor, Mr Paul Ainslie. Please see https://f2sg.substack.com/p/2022-04-11-speech-notes-for-the-toronto for the notes and references for this speech.
Vaccinating Children for COVID-19
Public Health Authorities in Florida and Sweden no longer recommend vaccinating healthy children for COVID-19 Guidance for Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccines March 8, 2022, No general vaccination against covid-19 among children 5-11 years (in Swedish). Are they spreading misinformation? What evidence is TPH relying on to ask Ontario to MANDATE COVID-19 vaccinations for school attendance?
Lack of measurements
TPH lacks a clear definition and clear measurements of overall public health. Your objective ought to be something like maximizing the quantity and quality of life of the citizens of Toronto. You have no analysis of even something as basic as mortality in Toronto.
The best I can find for you is the Statistics Canada Provisional deaths and excess mortality in Canada dashboard. This only breaks down to Ontario and is currently at Week 42, October 2021, lagging about 6 months. By eyeball, the weekly deaths for Ontario in 2021 are running at about the same level as 2020, if not higher. If this holds for Toronto, then it’s not clear that TPH’s tunnel vision focus on COVID-19 in 2021 improved public health in Toronto at all.
With all the academic and medical resources we have in Toronto we ought to be able to measure better than this. If not, then Toronto is never shy about asking higher levels of government for help.
Masking
TPH continues to support masking but without citing any evidence. Vinay Prasad is the author of over 350 academic articles on cancer drugs, health policy, clinical trials and better decision making. [Vinay Prasad’s substack contains multiple critiques of masking studies: A new health affairs paper "proves" mask mandates slow covid-19, Mask studies reach a new scientific low point , New Variant, Travel Restrictions, Lockdowns (which also addresses masks).]
I’d like to highlight two recent videos from Vinay on YouTube.
Masking Kids 10-12: A New Natural Experiment From Finland. Did it work? which refers to Use of face masks did not impact COVID-19 incidence among 10–12-year-olds in Finland. We compared the differences in trends of 14-day incidences of COVID-19 between Helsinki (masking) and Turku (not masking) among 10–12-year-olds, and for comparison, also among ages 7–9 and 30–49 by using joinpoint regression. According to our analysis, no additional effect seemed to be gained from this, based on comparisons between the cities and between the age groups of the unvaccinated children (10–12 years versus 7–9 years).
Are there any good studies of masking school aged children? - Recent results from Spain which refers to Unravelling the Role of the Mandatory Use of Face Covering Masks for the Control of SARS-CoV-2 in Schools: A Quasi-Experimental Study Nested in a Population-Based Cohort in Catalonia (Spain) Spain required masking children in school starting at age 6. Researchers in Barcelona performed a retrospective population-based study among 599,314 children aged 3 to 11 years attending preschool (3-5 years, without Face Covering Mask mandate) and primary education (6-11 years, with Face Covering Mask mandate). There was a steady increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with age without any gap between 5 and 6 years. They concluded Face Covering Mask mandates in schools were not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 incidence or transmission, suggesting that this intervention was not effective. Instead, age-dependency was the most important factor in explaining the transmission risk for children attending school.
[There is simply no good evidence that cloth masks work against SARS-CoV-2. I also recommend the Board watch Why Has Public Health Lost Trust | A Brief Recap of Things We Got Wrong | A Prof reflects and read When COVID cases climb on Vinay’s substack.]
Vitamin D
The English Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID), Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has issued an Open consultation Vitamin D: call for evidence This is backed up by data showing around 13% to 16% of all adults have low vitamin D status and mean vitamin D status is higher in white adults compared with people from black African, black Caribbean, black ethnic groups or south Asian adults. This consultation is part of levelling up health disparities to break the link between background and prospects for a healthy life.
The evidence for vitamin D just keeps accumulating. Dr John Campbell at Vitamin D, Strong evidence from Israel reports on the study Vitamin D deficiency prevalence and cardiovascular risk in Israel The importance of this study is that it looked at vitamin D levels PRIOR to COVID-19 infection and COVID-19 infection severity and found they correlated inversely. This helps untangle the well known confounding effect that infection itself reduces vitamin D levels.
You are not a serious Public Health agency if you don’t understand and publicize the critical role of vitamin D in overall health including viral infections.